您的当前位置:首页 > 私募资讯 > Bitfinex report: Market volatility will intensify, Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs after US election 正文
时间:2025-06-30 08:38:22 来源:网络整理 编辑:私募资讯
Bitfinex,thecryptocurrencyexchange,saidinareportreleasedonMondaythattheuncertaintyoftheUSelection,th
Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.
Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.
Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.
The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.
The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.
The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666
bcx钱包上线2025-06-30 09:15
Jihan Wu 将于3月接任Bitdeer首席执行官2025-06-30 08:46
10月31日九泰盈泰量化股票A净值下跌0.23%,近1个月累计下跌2.94%2025-06-30 08:36
10月31日博时价值增长贰号混合净值下跌0.37%,近1个月累计下跌3.5%2025-06-30 08:13
什么是会计?会计是做什么的?2025-06-30 07:55
10月31日长安鑫利优选混合A净值下跌0.50%,近6个月累计下跌0.61%2025-06-30 07:31
10月31日永赢睿信混合C净值增长0.36%,今年来累计上涨15.28%2025-06-30 07:15
ouyiokb安卓 ouyi最新版okb官方app2025-06-30 07:07
10月31日易方达稳健增利混合C净值下跌0.52%,近1个月累计下跌2.92%2025-06-30 06:58
10月31日大成聚优成长混合A净值下跌0.15%,近1个月累计下跌4.96%2025-06-30 06:43
宜人贷提交贷款审核需要多久,我过几天就要用到钱了2025-06-30 09:14
货币交易平台 全球虚拟币交易平台2025-06-30 08:20
职工教育经费是否包含进项税2025-06-30 07:58
10月31日易方达港股通红利混合净值下跌0.50%,近1个月累计下跌0.5%2025-06-30 07:54
bts数字币今日行情2025-06-30 07:43
10月31日南方创新精选一年定开混合C净值下跌0.87%,近1个月累计下跌2.92%2025-06-30 07:27
风什么电什么描写天气-风什么电什么描写天气的词语2025-06-30 06:59
USDT什么软件比较好的 十款好用的usdt软件合集2025-06-30 06:53
税控盘减免税款月末如何结转2025-06-30 06:50
泰康人寿保险赔偿标准是怎样的?有哪些具体规定?2025-06-30 06:39